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Lamar Jackson

Lamar Jackson Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 14

Baltimore Ravens vs Los Angeles Rams

Lamar Jackson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 49.5 (-105/-124).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 46.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 49.5 @ -105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This week's spread suggests an extreme rushing game script for the Ravens, who are a huge favorite by 7.5 points.

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens to run on 52.0% of their downs: the highest rate on the slate this week.

Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Ravens are expected by the projection model to run 66.7 total plays in this contest: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.

In this week's contest, Lamar Jackson is predicted by the projections to notch the 2nd-most rush attempts among all QBs with 10.6.

Lamar Jackson isn't afraid to run the ball himself, comprising 30.0% of his team's carries this year, ranking him in the 98th percentile among QBs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Ravens feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 3.5% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).

Lamar Jackson's 51.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year shows a remarkable diminishment in his running skills over last year's 66.0 mark.

Lamar Jackson's rushing effectiveness has worsened this season, accumulating a mere 5.79 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a 7.94 rate last season.

The Los Angeles defensive tackles project as the 5th-best group of DTs in the NFL this year when it comes to defending the run.

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