Lamar Jackson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Lamar Jackson

NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

Rushing Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 27, 2023 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Lamar Jackson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 43.5 (-117/-112).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 44.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 43.5 @ -112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

With a 3-point advantage, the Ravens are favored in this week's game, suggesting more of an emphasis on rushing than their standard approach.
The leading projections forecast the Baltimore Ravens as the 9th-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 46.1% run rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Baltimore Ravens are projected by the projection model to call 66.5 offensive plays in this contest: the 6th-highest number on the slate this week.
This week, Lamar Jackson is anticipated by the projection model to total the 3rd-most rush attempts among all QBs with 8.7.
Comprising 30.3% of his offense's carries this year (100th percentile among quarterbacks), Lamar Jackson's mobility makes him a serious threat as a ball-carrier.

Favors Under

The Baltimore Ravens boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.6% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
Lamar Jackson's 52.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this season reflects a noteable drop-off in his running ability over last season's 66.0 mark.
Lamar Jackson's rushing efficiency has worsened this year, accumulating just 5.92 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 7.94 rate last year.

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