Lamar Jackson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Lamar Jackson

NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

Rushing Yards

Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 17, 2023 1:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Lamar Jackson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 49.5 (-104/-127).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 43.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 49.5 @ -104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week's line implies a running game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 3.5 points.
The projections expect the Baltimore Ravens to be the 2nd-most run-focused team among all teams this week with a 48.4% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
In this contest, Lamar Jackson is projected by the model to accrue the most rush attempts out of all quarterbacks with 9.3.
Making up 30.1% of his offense's rushing play calls this year (100th percentile among QBs), Lamar Jackson's mobility marks him as a dangerous threat with his legs.
The Bengals defense owns the 3rd-worst efficiency against opposing running games this year, conceding 4.98 adjusted yards-per-carry.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Ravens offense to lean 3.6% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Todd Monken now calling the plays.
Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Ravens are anticipated by the predictive model to run only 62.8 offensive plays in this contest: the 6th-fewest on the slate this week.
Still weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being predicted in this game) generally mean increased passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and lower rush volume.
Lamar Jackson has run for a lot fewer adjusted yards per game (52.0) this year than he did last year (66.0).
Lamar Jackson's ground efficiency has diminished this year, averaging just 5.90 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a 7.94 figure last year.

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