Lamar Jackson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

Rushing Yards

Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Lamar Jackson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 55.5 (-139/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 55.5 @ -116 before it was bet up to 55.5 @ -139.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 6th-most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 46.1% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Lamar Jackson to accrue 11.8 rush attempts in this contest, on average: the 2nd-most of all quarterbacks.
THE BLITZ projects Lamar Jackson to be a more important option in his offense's rushing attack this week (38.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (27.1% in games he has played).
Lamar Jackson has grinded out 68.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the largest marks in the league among quarterbacks (100th percentile).

Favors Under

The Ravens are a 3.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens offense to be the 5th-worst paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.87 seconds per snap.
The Baltimore Ravens offensive line grades out as the 4th-worst in the league since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.
Opposing teams have rushed for the 4th-least yards in the league (just 99 per game) versus the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season.
The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.