Lamar Jackson Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Lamar Jackson

NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

Rushing TD

Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Lamar Jackson Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+131/-177).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +139 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +131.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Lamar Jackson to be a much bigger part of his team's rushing attack near the end zone this week (34.8% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (26.9% in games he has played).
Lamar Jackson has rushed for 0.20 touchdowns per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the highest figures in the NFL among quarterbacks (89th percentile).
Opposing squads have run for the 4th-most touchdowns in the league (1.10 per game) against the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season.
The Buffalo Bills safeties grade out as the 30th-worst safety corps in the league since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.

Favors Under

The Ravens are a 3.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens offense to be the 5th-worst paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.87 seconds per snap.
The Baltimore Ravens offensive line grades out as the 4th-worst in the league since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.
The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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