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Lamar Jackson

Lamar Jackson Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 12

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Baltimore Ravens

Lamar Jackson Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+199/-289).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -195 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -289.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Ravens are a heavy 13-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects Lamar Jackson to be a much bigger part of his team's run game near the end zone this week (33.4% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (25.6% in games he has played).

Lamar Jackson has run for 0.20 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the highest figures in the league among QBs (84th percentile).

The Jacksonville Jaguars safeties profile as the 27th-worst unit in football this year when it comes to defending the run.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box versus opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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