Lamar Jackson Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Lamar Jackson

NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

Rushing TD

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 1:01 AM EST

Analysis

Lamar Jackson Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+199/-289).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -195 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -289.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Ravens are a heavy 13-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Lamar Jackson to be a much bigger part of his team's run game near the end zone this week (33.4% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (25.6% in games he has played).
Lamar Jackson has run for 0.20 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the highest figures in the league among QBs (84th percentile).
The Jacksonville Jaguars safeties profile as the 27th-worst unit in football this year when it comes to defending the run.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box versus opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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