Lamar Jackson Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Lamar Jackson

NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

Passing Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 1, 2024

Updated Sep 5, 2024 11:41 PM EST

Analysis

Lamar Jackson Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 208.5 (-115/-113).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 223.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 208.5 @ -113.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Ravens are underdogs this week, suggesting more of a focus on passing than their typical game plan.
The predictive model expects the Ravens to run the 10th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.6 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The Baltimore offensive line ranks as the 5th-best in football last year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing game stats across the board.
Lamar Jackson grades out as one of the most accurate passers in the NFL last year with an impressive 67.4% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 84th percentile.
With an excellent 7.83 adjusted yards-per-target (94th percentile) last year, Lamar Jackson places among the best per-play quarterbacks in the NFL.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Ravens to pass on 55.1% of their chances: the 7th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
Opposing offenses have averaged 30.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Chiefs defense last year: 4th-fewest in football.
Opposing teams have thrown for the 4th-fewest yards in the NFL (just 188.0 adjusted yards per game) versus the Chiefs defense last year.
The Chiefs pass defense has shown good efficiency last year, surrendering 6.84 adjusted yards-per-target: the 3rd-fewest in football.
When it comes to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, Kansas City's group of CBs has been excellent last year, profiling as the 3rd-best in football.

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