Lamar Jackson Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Lamar Jackson

NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

Passing Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 16, 2023 2:46 AM EST

Analysis

Lamar Jackson Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 220.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 221.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 220.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Baltimore Ravens have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 2.3% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
Lamar Jackson's 71.6% Adjusted Completion% this year indicates a a material growth in his throwing accuracy over last year's 62.9% rate.
Lamar Jackson has been among the best per-play passers in the NFL this year, averaging a fantastic 7.50 adjusted yards-per-target while ranking in the 79th percentile.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 2nd-highest level in football versus the Titans defense this year (78.3% Adjusted Completion%).
The Titans pass defense has displayed bad efficiency this year, allowing 8.48 adjusted yards-per-target: the 6th-most in the league.

Favors Under

With a 5-point advantage, the Ravens are favored this week, indicating more of a reliance on rushing than their normal game plan.
Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Ravens to pass on 52.2% of their plays: the 3rd-lowest rate among all teams this week.
Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Baltimore Ravens are expected by our trusted projection set to run only 63.2 total plays in this contest: the 10th-fewest among all teams this week.
This week, Lamar Jackson is anticipated by the projections to total the 5th-fewest pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 30.1.

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