Lamar Jackson Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

Passing Yards

Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 3:51 PM EST

Analysis

Lamar Jackson Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 200.5 (-114/-122).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 201.5 @ -118 before it was bet down to 200.5 @ -122.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Baltimore Ravens will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and The leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 2.4% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 130.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Baltimore Ravens O-line profiles as the 2nd-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Lamar Jackson's passing precision has gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% increasing from 62.9% to 73.7%.
Lamar Jackson has been among the best per-play passers in the NFL this year, averaging an impressive 7.31 yards-per-target while grading out in the 79th percentile.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens as the 5th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 53.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast Lamar Jackson to attempt 31.5 passes in this week's game, on average: the 6th-fewest of all QBs.
Opposing teams have averaged 29.6 pass attempts per game against the Cleveland Browns defense since the start of last season: 3rd-fewest in football.
Opposing QBs have passed for the fewest yards in football (just 192.0 per game) versus the Cleveland Browns defense since the start of last season.
Since the start of last season, the daunting Browns defense has surrendered a paltry 65.7% Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 3rd-lowest rate in the league.