Lamar Jackson Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Lamar Jackson

NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

Passing Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 17, 2023 5:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Lamar Jackson Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 211.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Baltimore Ravens boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.4% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Ravens are a 3.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Baltimore Ravens O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
The Cincinnati Bengals safeties project as the 4th-worst safety corps in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Favors Under

The Ravens have been the 7th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 55.1% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens offense to be the 6th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 29.22 seconds per snap.
Lamar Jackson has attempted a measly 27.9 throws per game since the start of last season, ranking in the 22nd percentile among quarterbacks.
Lamar Jackson has been among the bottom passers in football since the start of last season, averaging 192.0 yards per game while grading out in the 22nd percentile.
Opposing offenses have passed for the 5th-least yards in the league (just 201.0 per game) versus the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season.

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