Lamar Jackson Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Lamar Jackson

NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

Passing Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 8, 2022 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Lamar Jackson Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 212.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 220.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 212.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Baltimore Ravens offensive line profiles as the 6th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
The New Orleans Saints cornerbacks grade out as the worst unit in the league this year in pass coverage.
The New Orleans Saints pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the slowest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Baltimore Ravens have incorporated play action on 29.2% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (8th-most in football), tricking the defense into thinking it's a run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens as the 3rd-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 58.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Baltimore Ravens have run the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 55.9 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Lamar Jackson to attempt 34.1 passes in this contest, on average: the 5th-least of all quarterbacks.
Opposing teams have passed for the 7th-least yards in the league (just 212.0 per game) against the New Orleans Saints defense this year.

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