Lamar Jackson Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

Passing Yards

Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Lamar Jackson Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 228.5 (-101/-129).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 228.5 @ +111 before it was bet up to 228.5 @ -101.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Ravens are a 3.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
The Baltimore Ravens offensive line ranks as the 7th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
Lamar Jackson has been among the top passers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 240.0 yards per game while checking in at the 76th percentile.
Lamar Jackson's throwing efficiency has gotten better this year, notching 8.49 yards-per-target vs a mere 7.48 figure last year.
The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 6th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 53.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens offense to be the 5th-worst paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.87 seconds per snap.
The weatherman calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Lamar Jackson to attempt 31.3 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 6th-least of all quarterbacks.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.3 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season: 5th-least in the NFL.