Lamar Jackson Interceptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Lamar Jackson

NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

Interceptions

Baltimore Ravens vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 10, 2023 8:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Lamar Jackson Interceptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+110/-143).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -139 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -143.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Ravens feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 3.5% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Ravens are expected by the projection model to run 66.7 total plays in this contest: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.
As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all air attack stats), the offensive line of the Baltimore Ravens grades out as the 2nd-best in the league this year.
Los Angeles's defense grades out as the 9th-worst in the league this year when it comes to inducing interceptions, notching just 0.53 per game.

Favors Under

This week's spread suggests an extreme rushing game script for the Ravens, who are a huge favorite by 7.5 points.
The projections expect the Ravens as the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 48.0% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
This week, Lamar Jackson is expected by the model to wind up with the 6th-fewest pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 29.7.
Lamar Jackson has averaged a measly 0.47 interceptions per game this year, ranking in the 82nd percentile when it comes to quarterbacks.

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