Lamar Jackson Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Lamar Jackson

NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

Completions

Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 5, 2024

Updated Oct 6, 2024 11:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Lamar Jackson Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-140/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Baltimore O-line ranks as the 4th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Since the start of last season, the porous Bengals defense has conceded a monstrous 72.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 8th-highest rate in the NFL.

Favors Under

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Baltimore Ravens to pass on 48.9% of their downs: the 2nd-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Baltimore Ravens are forecasted by the projections to run only 61.4 offensive plays in this contest: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week.
Windy weather conditions (like the 14-mph being predicted in this game) usually mean worse passing efficiency, lower air attack volume, and increased rush volume.
In this week's game, Lamar Jackson is predicted by the projection model to total the 4th-fewest pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 27.7.
Opposing teams have averaged 30.0 pass attempts per game versus the Bengals defense this year: 6th-fewest in the league.

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