Lamar Jackson Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Lamar Jackson

NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

Completions

Baltimore Ravens vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 4:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Lamar Jackson Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-115/-113).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 19.5 @ -112 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Baltimore Ravens boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.8% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 134.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Baltimore Ravens offensive line ranks as the 3rd-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all pass game stats across the board.
Lamar Jackson's passing accuracy has been refined this year, with his Completion% increasing from 62.9% to 75.5%.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 9th-highest level in the NFL against the Indianapolis Colts defense since the start of last season (71.9%).

Favors Under

The Ravens are a massive 7.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens as the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 49.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Lamar Jackson to attempt 30.6 passes in this contest, on average: the 4th-least of all QBs.
Opposing teams have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense since the start of last season: 8th-least in the NFL.

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