Lamar Jackson Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Lamar Jackson

NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

Completions

Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 17, 2023 5:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Lamar Jackson Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 18.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 18.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Baltimore Ravens boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.4% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Ravens are a 3.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Baltimore Ravens O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
The Cincinnati Bengals safeties project as the 4th-worst safety corps in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Favors Under

The Ravens have been the 7th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 55.1% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens offense to be the 6th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 29.22 seconds per snap.
Lamar Jackson has attempted a measly 27.9 throws per game since the start of last season, ranking in the 22nd percentile among quarterbacks.

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