Lamar Jackson Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Lamar Jackson

NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

Completions

Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 17, 2023 1:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Lamar Jackson Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-160/+130).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Ravens offense to lean 3.6% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Todd Monken now calling the plays.
Still weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being predicted in this game) generally mean increased passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and lower rush volume.
The Ravens offensive line grades out as the 7th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all air attack stats across the board.
Lamar Jackson's 71.4% Adjusted Completion% this season shows a noteworthy gain in his passing precision over last season's 62.9% rate.
The Bengals safeties rank as the worst unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

This week's line implies a running game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 3.5 points.
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Ravens to pass on 51.6% of their chances: the 2nd-lowest rate on the slate this week.
Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Ravens are anticipated by the predictive model to run only 62.8 offensive plays in this contest: the 6th-fewest on the slate this week.
In this game, Lamar Jackson is projected by our trusted projection set to wind up with the 3rd-fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 29.7.

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