Lamar Jackson Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Lamar Jackson

NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

Completions

Baltimore Ravens vs Cleveland Browns · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Lamar Jackson Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Baltimore Ravens feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 3.4% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is predicted by the predictive model to see 130.4 offensive plays called: the 2nd-most among all games this week.
As it relates to pocket protection (and the positive impact it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Baltimore Ravens grades out as the 2nd-best in football this year.
Lamar Jackson's 72.4% Adjusted Completion% this year indicates a substantial progression in his passing precision over last year's 62.9% figure.

Favors Under

The Ravens are a 6-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens to pass on 50.1% of their opportunities: the lowest frequency among all teams this week.
In this contest, Lamar Jackson is predicted by the projections to average the fewest pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 29.7.
Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to rely on the passing game too much against the Browns, averaging the fewest attempts in the league (a mere 27.6 per game) this year.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the lowest level in the NFL vs. the Browns defense this year (59.7% Adjusted Completion%).

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