Lamar Jackson Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

Completions

Baltimore Ravens vs Carolina Panthers · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Lamar Jackson Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (+127/-169).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -136 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ +127.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Baltimore Ravens offensive line grades out as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 4th-highest level in the league versus the Carolina Panthers defense this year (73.9%).
The Carolina Panthers safeties grade out as the 4th-worst unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box vs. opponents on 26.1% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Baltimore Ravens have incorporated play action on 29.2% of their passing plays since the start of last season (8th-most in the NFL), tricking the defense into thinking it's a run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Ravens are a massive 13-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens as the 4th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 48.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 126.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Baltimore Ravens have run the 8th-least plays in football this year, totaling a measly 56.2 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.