Lamar Jackson Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Lamar Jackson

NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

Carries

Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 5:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Lamar Jackson Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-137/+106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 8.5 @ -129 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ -137.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Ravens to be the 4th-most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 47.8% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 130.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The projections expect Lamar Jackson to accumulate 9.4 carries in this game, on average: the 2nd-most of all quarterbacks.
Accounting for 30.4% of his team's rush attempts this year (97th percentile when it comes to quarterbacks), Lamar Jackson's mobility marks him as a serious threat in the run game.

Favors Under

The Baltimore Ravens will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and The leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 2.4% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
When it comes to the linebackers' role in defending against the run, Cleveland's collection of LBs has been excellent since the start of last season, grading out as the 2nd-best in football.

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