Lamar Jackson Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Lamar Jackson

NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

Carries

Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 17, 2023 5:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Lamar Jackson Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 7.5 @ +120 before it was bet down to 7.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Ravens have been the 7th-most run-centric team in the league (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 44.9% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects Lamar Jackson to notch 7.9 carries in this contest, on average: the 4th-most of all QBs.
The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers grade out as the worst group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.

Favors Under

The Baltimore Ravens boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.4% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Ravens are a 3.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens offense to be the 6th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 29.22 seconds per snap.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Lamar Jackson has been a much smaller piece of his offense's running game this year (20.7% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (28.7%).

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