Lamar Jackson Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Lamar Jackson

NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

Carries

Baltimore Ravens vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 10, 2023 6:01 PM EST

Analysis

Lamar Jackson Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (+115/-145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 8.5 @ -140 before it was bet up to 9.5 @ +115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week's spread suggests an extreme rushing game script for the Ravens, who are a huge favorite by 7.5 points.
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens to run on 52.0% of their downs: the highest rate on the slate this week.
Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Ravens are expected by the projection model to run 66.7 total plays in this contest: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.
In this week's contest, Lamar Jackson is predicted by the projections to notch the 2nd-most rush attempts among all QBs with 10.6.
Lamar Jackson isn't afraid to run the ball himself, comprising 30.0% of his team's carries this year, ranking him in the 98th percentile among QBs.

Favors Under

The Ravens feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 3.5% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Los Angeles defensive tackles project as the 5th-best group of DTs in the NFL this year when it comes to defending the run.

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