Lamar Jackson Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Lamar Jackson

NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

Carries

Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Lamar Jackson Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-149/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -123 before it was bet up to 9.5 @ -149.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Ravens are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Lamar Jackson to garner 8.8 carries this week, on average: the 3rd-least of all QBs.
THE BLITZ projects Lamar Jackson to be a more important option in his offense's run game this week (33.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (22.6% in games he has played).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens as the 9th-least run-oriented offense in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 36.5% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run out of all the games this week at 122.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Baltimore Ravens have run the 3rd-least plays in football this year, averaging a mere 52.2 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Baltimore Ravens offensive line profiles as the 6th-worst in the league this year at blocking for rushers.

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