Lamar Jackson Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Lamar Jackson

NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

Carries

Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 7:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Lamar Jackson Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (+110/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -140 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 6th-most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 46.1% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Lamar Jackson to accrue 11.8 rush attempts in this contest, on average: the 2nd-most of all quarterbacks.
THE BLITZ projects Lamar Jackson to be a more important option in his offense's rushing attack this week (38.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (27.1% in games he has played).
The Buffalo Bills safeties grade out as the 30th-worst safety corps in the league since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.

Favors Under

The Ravens are a 3.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens offense to be the 5th-worst paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.87 seconds per snap.
The Baltimore Ravens offensive line grades out as the 4th-worst in the league since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.
The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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