Kyren Williams Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Kyren Williams

NFL · Player Props

Kyren Williams

RB · Los Angeles Rams

Receptions

Indianapolis Colts vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Kyren Williams Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-145/+115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -165 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ +115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Rams as the 5th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 62.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast this game to see the 2nd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 134.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Kyren Williams has been used more as a potential target this year (78.6% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (29.0%).
The leading projections forecast Kyren Williams to accumulate 5.0 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 98th percentile when it comes to RBs.

Favors Under

The Los Angeles Rams have called the 9th-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a measly 56.1 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.6 pass attempts per game versus the Colts defense since the start of last season: 7th-fewest in football.
The Rams O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all pass game stats across the board.
Kyren Williams's sure-handedness have tailed off this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 79.9% to 44.5%.

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