Kyren Williams Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Kyren Williams

NFL · Player Props

Kyren Williams

RB · Los Angeles Rams

Receptions

Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 27, 2023 3:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Kyren Williams Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-155/+118).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +128 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.
Kyren Williams has run more routes this year (73.9% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (29.0%).
In this week's game, Kyren Williams is projected by our trusted projection set to slot into the 77th percentile among running backs with 3.4 targets.
Kyren Williams's pass-catching performance been refined this season, totaling 2.2 adjusted catches compared to a mere 1.1 last season.
This year, the feeble Cardinals pass defense has been torched for a whopping 85.3% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing running backs: the 9th-worst rate in the league.

Favors Under

The model projects the Rams to run the 8th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.7 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
Opposing teams teams have been unwilling to pass too much against the Cardinals, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 33.3 per game) this year.
As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the impact it has on all pass game metrics), the offensive line of the Rams profiles as the 10th-worst in the league this year.
Kyren Williams's 57.3% Adjusted Completion% this year represents a material decline in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 79.9% rate.

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