Kyren Williams Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Kyren Williams

NFL · Player Props

Kyren Williams

RB · Los Angeles Rams

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Rams vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 11:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Kyren Williams Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Rams are a 3.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Rams to pass on 63.6% of their plays: the 4th-greatest rate among all teams this week.
Opposing offenses have played at the 7th-fastest tempo in the league (adjusted for context) against the Los Angeles Rams defense this year, averaging 26.60 seconds per snap.
The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (0-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may go down.
Opposing offenses have averaged 41.0 pass attempts per game versus the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Los Angeles Rams O-line profiles as the 6th-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
Kyren Williams's 52.5% Adjusted Catch% this year indicates a a meaningful regression in his pass-catching talent over last year's 79.9% rate.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has excelled when opposing RBs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 6.68 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year: the 6th-fewest in the league.

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