Kyren Williams Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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NFL · Player Props

Kyren Williams

RB · Los Angeles Rams

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Rams vs Cleveland Browns · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 4, 2023 3:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Kyren Williams Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 23.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 22.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 133.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Calm weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being called for in this game) typically mean increased passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air volume, and reduced run volume.
Kyren Williams has been used more as a potential pass-catcher this season (72.5% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (29.0%).
This week, Kyren Williams is projected by the predictive model to land in the 82nd percentile when it comes to RBs with 4.1 targets.
As it relates to air yards, Kyren Williams grades out in the lofty 79th percentile among running backs this year, totaling a superb 1.0 per game. (considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more impressive than it sounds since most RBs average negative air yards).

Favors Under

This game's line suggests a running game script for the Rams, who are favored by 3.5 points.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Browns, totaling the fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 26.8 per game) this year.
In regards to protecting the passer (and the influence it has on all air attack statistics), the offensive line of the Los Angeles Rams profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year.
Kyren Williams's sure-handedness have declined this year, with his Adjusted Catch% falling off from 80.0% to 65.9%.
The Cleveland Browns defense has yielded the 5th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 24.0) to RBs this year.