Kyren Williams Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Kyren Williams

NFL · Player Props

Kyren Williams

RB · Los Angeles Rams

Carries

Cincinnati Bengals vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 26, 2023 12:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Kyren Williams Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-101/-128).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -109 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -101.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Los Angeles Rams have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to result in reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced offense results when facing windier conditions this week.
Kyren Williams has been on the field for 43.5% of his team's snaps since the start of last season, ranking him in the 86th percentile among RBs.
The model projects Kyren Williams to total 15.9 rush attempts in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 89th percentile among RBs.
The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers project as the 3rd-worst LB corps in the league since the start of last season with their run defense.

Favors Under

The Rams are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
The projections expect the Los Angeles Rams to be the 4th-least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 38.3% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect the Rams to run the least total plays among all teams this week with 61.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

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