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Kyler Murray

Kyler Murray TD Passes
Player Prop Week 16

Carolina Panthers vs Arizona Cardinals

Kyler Murray TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+105/-132).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -132.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being predicted in this game) usually lead to better passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher air volume, and reduced ground volume.

Kyler Murray's 68.3% Adjusted Completion% this season illustrates a noteworthy gain in his passing precision over last season's 65.3% rate.

Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 5th-highest level in the league against the Panthers defense this year (73.6% Adjusted Completion%).

This year, the weak Panthers defense has conceded a monstrous 1.93 passing touchdowns per game to opposing offenses: the largest rate in the league.

The Panthers safeties project as the 7th-worst collection of safeties in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Cardinals are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script.

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Arizona Cardinals to pass on 52.3% of their downs: the 7th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.

Our trusted projections expect the Arizona Cardinals to be the 8th-least pass-focused offense in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 53.2% red zone pass rate.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is anticipated by the model to see just 128.1 plays on offense called: the 4th-fewest out of all the games this week.

The Arizona Cardinals have called the 7th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 55.6 plays per game.

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