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Kyler Murray

Kyler Murray TD Passes
Player Prop Week 15

Arizona Cardinals vs New England Patriots

Kyler Murray TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may slide.

The New England Patriots defense has allowed the 6th-most passing TDs in the NFL: 1.69 per game this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 6-point advantage, the Cardinals are favored in this week's contest, suggesting more of a reliance on running than their standard game plan.

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Arizona Cardinals to pass on 55.8% of their downs: the 11th-lowest rate among all teams this week.

The Cardinals have been the 8th-least pass-oriented offense in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) this year with a 48.9% red zone pass rate.

Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Cardinals are expected by the projections to call just 63.1 plays on offense in this contest: the 4th-lowest number among all teams this week.

The 8th-fewest plays in football have been called by the Arizona Cardinals this year (a mere 55.3 per game on average).

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