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Kyler Murray

Kyler Murray TD Passes
Player Prop Week 10

Arizona Cardinals vs New York Jets

Kyler Murray TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+172/-230).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -215 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -230.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being called for in this game) usually mean better passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased air attack volume, and reduced ground volume.

When it comes to pass protection (and the strong impact it has on all pass game stats), the O-line of the Cardinals grades out as the 10th-best in the league this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Arizona Cardinals to pass on 55.2% of their downs: the 9th-lowest clip on the slate this week.

Right now, the 4th-least pass-heavy team in the NFL near the end zone (50.7% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Cardinals.

Our trusted projections expect the Arizona Cardinals to be the 3rd-most sluggish paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 29.37 seconds per play.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Jets defense this year: 8th-fewest in the league.

This year, the formidable New York Jets defense has allowed a paltry 63.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 3rd-smallest rate in the league.

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