Kyler Murray TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Kyler Murray

NFL · Player Props

Kyler Murray

QB · Arizona Cardinals

TD Passes

Houston Texans vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Kyler Murray TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+160/-200).

Key Factors

Favors Over

A throwing game script is indicated by the Cardinals being a -5.5-point underdog in this week's contest.
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Cardinals are forecasted by our trusted projection set to run 66.5 plays on offense in this contest: the 3rd-most among all teams this week.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
In this week's contest, Kyler Murray is projected by our trusted projection set to wind up with the 5th-most pass attempts out of all QBs with 36.2.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 7th-highest clip in the league vs. the Houston Texans defense this year (73.5% Adjusted Completion%).

Favors Under

The Arizona Cardinals boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 2.8% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The model projects the Cardinals to be the 9th-least pass-oriented offense in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 58.5% pass rate.
The Cardinals O-line ranks as the 5th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
This year, the imposing Texans defense has given up a puny 1.00 passing touchdowns per game to opposing QBs: the 3rd-best rate in the league.
The Houston cornerbacks grade out as the 3rd-best unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

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