Kyler Murray TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Kyler Murray

NFL · Player Props

Kyler Murray

QB · Arizona Cardinals

TD Passes

Arizona Cardinals vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 8:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Kyler Murray TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+170/-220).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 4th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 130.3 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Kyler Murray has attempted 37.5 passes per game last year, checking in at the 86th percentile among quarterbacks.
This year, the deficient Falcons defense has conceded a staggering 1.89 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing teams: the 4th-largest rate in the league.

Favors Under

The Cardinals boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The projections expect the Arizona Cardinals to be the 5th-least pass-centric offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 57.4% pass rate.
When it comes to pocket protection (and the importance it has on all pass attack statistics), the offensive line of the Cardinals grades out as the 5th-worst in football this year.
This year, the formidable Falcons defense has allowed a measly 68.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 10th-lowest rate in the NFL.
As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Atlanta's collection of safeties has been very good this year, profiling as the 9th-best in the NFL.

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