Kyler Murray Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Kyler Murray

NFL · Player Props

Kyler Murray

QB · Arizona Cardinals

Rushing Yards

Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 26, 2023 9:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Kyler Murray Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (-113/-113).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 35.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 39.5 @ -113.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Cardinals offensive strategy to skew 2.4% more towards the run game than it did last season (context-neutralized) with head coach Jonathan Gannon now calling the plays.
Right now, the 8th-most run-centric offense in the NFL (41.1% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Arizona Cardinals.
In this game, Kyler Murray is predicted by our trusted projection set to accumulate the 4th-most carries among all quarterbacks with 6.6.
Kyler Murray isn't afraid to run the ball himself, comprising 24.0% of his offense's rushing play calls this year, placing him in the 94th percentile among quarterbacks.
Kyler Murray has averaged 38.0 adjusted rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the highest marks in the NFL when it comes to quarterbacks (92nd percentile).

Favors Under

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Cardinals are forecasted by the projection model to run only 64.1 offensive plays in this contest: the 10th-lowest number among all teams this week.
The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.
The Arizona O-line ranks as the 5th-worst in football last year at executing run-blocking assingments.
As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in run defense, Los Angeles's unit has been terrific this year, projecting as the 4th-best in the league.

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