Kyler Murray Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Kyler Murray

NFL · Player Props

Kyler Murray

QB · Arizona Cardinals

Rushing TD

Arizona Cardinals vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Kyler Murray Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+227/-368).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +281 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +227.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Arizona Cardinals have called the 4th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 70.2 plays per game.
Kyler Murray has run for 0.25 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest marks in football among quarterbacks (83rd percentile).
Opposing teams have rushed for the 8th-most TDs in the NFL (1.00 per game) vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year.
The Arizona Cardinals have faced a stacked the box on just 9.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Cardinals are a 5.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
The Philadelphia Eagles defensive ends rank as the 3rd-best DE corps in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.
The Arizona Cardinals have used some form of misdirection on a lowly 34.3% of their plays since the start of last season (least in the NFL), which likely makes the offense more predictable and less effective.

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