Kyler Murray Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Kyler Murray

NFL · Player Props

Kyler Murray

QB · Arizona Cardinals

Passing Yards

Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 9:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Kyler Murray Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 211.5 (-115/-113).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 210.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 211.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

An extreme passing game script is indicated by the Cardinals being a big -11.5-point underdog in this week's game.
Our trusted projections expect the Cardinals to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.
The 49ers defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, tempting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in football (39.0 per game) this year.

Favors Under

The model projects the Cardinals to call the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.5 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The Arizona Cardinals offensive line profiles as the 6th-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all air attack stats across the board.
Kyler Murray's passing accuracy has tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 64.5% to 60.2%.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has displayed strong efficiency this year, giving up 6.90 adjusted yards-per-target: the 4th-fewest in the league.
The San Francisco 49ers defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.12 yards-after-the-catch this year: the fewest in the league.

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