Kyler Murray Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Kyler Murray

NFL · Player Props

Kyler Murray

QB · Arizona Cardinals

Passing Yards

Arizona Cardinals vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 9:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Kyler Murray Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 225.5 (+110/-145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 220.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 225.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 4th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 130.3 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Kyler Murray has attempted 37.5 passes per game last year, checking in at the 86th percentile among quarterbacks.

Favors Under

The Cardinals boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The projections expect the Arizona Cardinals to be the 5th-least pass-centric offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 57.4% pass rate.
When it comes to pocket protection (and the importance it has on all pass attack statistics), the offensive line of the Cardinals grades out as the 5th-worst in football this year.
With a lackluster 6.12 adjusted yards-per-target (7th percentile) last year, Kyler Murray places among the least efficient QBs in the league.
This year, the tough Atlanta Falcons defense has surrendered a feeble 216.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing offenses: the 9th-fewest in the league.

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