Kyler Murray Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Kyler Murray

NFL · Player Props

Kyler Murray

QB · Arizona Cardinals

Completions

Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 26, 2023 9:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Kyler Murray Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-125/-106).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.
In logging a staggering 36.5 pass attempts per game since the start of last season, Kyler Murray rates among the top quarterbacks in the league (78th percentile) in this regard.
The Rams linebackers profile as the 2nd-worst unit in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Cardinals offensive strategy to skew 2.4% more towards the run game than it did last season (context-neutralized) with head coach Jonathan Gannon now calling the plays.
Right now, the 8th-least pass-heavy team in the NFL (58.9% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Arizona Cardinals.
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Cardinals are forecasted by the projection model to run only 64.1 offensive plays in this contest: the 10th-lowest number among all teams this week.
The Arizona offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful influence on all air attack metrics across the board.
Kyler Murray's 60.2% Adjusted Completion% this season indicates a meaningful regression in his throwing accuracy over last season's 64.5% figure.

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