Kyler Murray Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Kyler Murray

NFL · Player Props

Kyler Murray

QB · Arizona Cardinals

Carries

Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 9:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Kyler Murray Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week, Kyler Murray is projected by the projection model to notch the 7th-most rush attempts out of all quarterbacks with 5.2.
Making up 20.4% of his team's rush attempts this year (92nd percentile among quarterbacks), Kyler Murray's mobility makes him a serious threat on the ground.

Favors Under

An extreme passing game script is indicated by the Cardinals being a big -11.5-point underdog in this week's game.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Cardinals to run on 37.5% of their plays: the 3rd-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
The model projects the Cardinals to call the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.5 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.
The Arizona Cardinals O-line grades out as the 6th-worst in the league last year in run-blocking.

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