Kyler Murray Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Kyler Murray

NFL · Player Props

Kyler Murray

QB · Arizona Cardinals

Carries

Houston Texans vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 4:01 AM EST

Analysis

Kyler Murray Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (+114/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Arizona Cardinals boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 2.8% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
At the moment, the 9th-most run-heavy team in football (41.5% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Arizona Cardinals.
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Cardinals are forecasted by our trusted projection set to run 66.5 plays on offense in this contest: the 3rd-most among all teams this week.
Our trusted projections expect Kyler Murray to accrue 6.1 carries in this week's contest, on balance: the 5th-most out of all QBs.
Comprising 20.0% of his team's rushing play calls this year (89th percentile when it comes to QBs), Kyler Murray's mobility makes him a major weapon with his legs.

Favors Under

A throwing game script is indicated by the Cardinals being a -5.5-point underdog in this week's contest.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
When talking about run-blocking (and the impact it has on all ground game statistics), the O-line of the Cardinals ranks as the 6th-worst in football last year.

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