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Kyle Pitts

Kyle Pitts Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Atlanta Falcons vs New York Giants

Kyle Pitts Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-124/-106).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +110 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -106.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Atlanta Falcons offense has played at the 8th-quickest pace in football (context-neutralized) this year, averaging 27.94 seconds per play.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

The predictive model expects Kyle Pitts to total 4.2 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 78th percentile among tight ends.

This year, the porous Giants pass defense has been gouged for a monstrous 92.9% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the highest rate in the league.

As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, New York's safety corps has been lousy this year, grading out as the 2nd-worst in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

An extreme rushing game script is implied by the Falcons being a huge 9.5-point favorite in this week's contest.

The projections expect the Falcons as the 4th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 49.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

Opposing offenses teams have been hesitant to rely on the passing game too much against the New York Giants, averaging the fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 29.1 per game) this year.

Kyle Pitts's 33.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive volume) has been notably lower this year than it was last year at 44.8.

Kyle Pitts has been one of the worst possession receivers in the league among TEs, completing just 62.8% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 8th percentile.

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