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Kyle Pitts

Kyle Pitts Receptions
Player Prop Week 15

Las Vegas Raiders vs Atlanta Falcons

Kyle Pitts Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Atlanta Falcons have run the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 58.8 plays per game.

The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may suffer.

The model projects Kyle Pitts to garner 4.7 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 81st percentile when it comes to tight ends.

As it relates to linebackers in pass coverage, Las Vegas's collection of LBs has been atrocious this year, profiling as the worst in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A running game script is implied by the Falcons being a 6-point favorite in this game.

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Atlanta Falcons to pass on 55.1% of their plays: the lowest rate on the slate this week.

Our trusted projections expect the Falcons to call the 10th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 64.2 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.

Kyle Pitts's 32.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive usage) has been significantly worse this season than it was last season at 44.8.

Kyle Pitts is positioned as one of the least sure-handed receivers in the league among tight ends, catching a mere 60.0% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 2nd percentile.

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