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Kyle Pitts

Kyle Pitts Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

Denver Broncos vs Atlanta Falcons

Kyle Pitts Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ +119 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ +105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.0 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.

The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (2-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may go down.

Opposing offenses have averaged 35.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Broncos defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.

In this week's game, Kyle Pitts is expected by the model to rank in the 88th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.4 targets.

Kyle Pitts rates as one of the top TE receiving threats this year, averaging an excellent 3.2 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 75th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast the Atlanta Falcons to be the 9th-least pass-centric offense in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 58.6% pass rate.

Kyle Pitts's 34.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive usage) has been significantly worse this season than it was last season at 44.8.

The Atlanta Falcons offensive line ranks as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all pass game stats across the board.

When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Denver's group of safeties has been great this year, ranking as the 5th-best in football.

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