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Kyle Pitts

Kyle Pitts Receptions
Player Prop Week 9

Atlanta Falcons vs Minnesota Vikings

Kyle Pitts Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-158/+124).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -158.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect this game to have the 3rd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 131.2 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.

The Falcons have run the 7th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 62.0 plays per game.

The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may slide.

The predictive model expects Kyle Pitts to total 6.3 targets in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 94th percentile among TEs.

With an exceptional 3.4 adjusted catches per game (81st percentile) this year, Kyle Pitts places as one of the top TEs in the pass game in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's spread indicates a rushing game script for the Falcons, who are favored by 3.5 points.

The model projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 4th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 53.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

Kyle Pitts's 45.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 63.1.

As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Minnesota's collection of safeties has been outstanding this year, projecting as the 3rd-best in the league.

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