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Kyle Pitts
NFL · Player Props
Kyle Pitts
TE · Atlanta Falcons
Receptions
Atlanta Falcons vs Houston Texans · Week 5, 2023 Updated Oct 8, 2023 5:11 PM UTC
NFL Props Kyle Pitts Receptions

Kyle Pitts Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-130/-100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +120 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -100.

Favors Over
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is expected by the predictive model to have 130.4 plays on offense run: the 4th-most among all games this week.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • The predictive model expects Kyle Pitts to earn 5.8 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 90th percentile when it comes to TEs.
  • Kyle Pitts's 52.8% Adjusted Completion% this year shows a an impressive growth in his receiving proficiency over last year's 49.3% mark.
  • The Houston Texans pass defense has been gouged for the 5th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (84%) versus tight ends this year (84.0%).
Favors Under
  • Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Falcons to pass on 53.2% of their plays: the 3rd-lowest rate among all teams this week.
  • Opposing QBs teams have been wary to rely on the passing game too much against the Texans, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 34.0 per game) this year.
  • Kyle Pitts's 46.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 63.1.
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