Kyle Pitts Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Kyle Pitts

NFL · Player Props

Kyle Pitts

TE · Atlanta Falcons

Receptions

Atlanta Falcons vs Houston Texans · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 5:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Kyle Pitts Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-130/-100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +120 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is expected by the predictive model to have 130.4 plays on offense run: the 4th-most among all games this week.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The predictive model expects Kyle Pitts to earn 5.8 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 90th percentile when it comes to TEs.
Kyle Pitts's 52.8% Adjusted Completion% this year shows a an impressive growth in his receiving proficiency over last year's 49.3% mark.
The Houston Texans pass defense has been gouged for the 5th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (84%) versus tight ends this year (84.0%).

Favors Under

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Falcons to pass on 53.2% of their plays: the 3rd-lowest rate among all teams this week.
Opposing QBs teams have been wary to rely on the passing game too much against the Texans, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 34.0 per game) this year.
Kyle Pitts's 46.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 63.1.

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