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Kyle Pitts

Kyle Pitts Receptions
Player Prop Week 18

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons

Kyle Pitts Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -175 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Falcons are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Atlanta Falcons are expected by the projection model to call 70.0 offensive plays in this game: the highest number among all teams this week.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

In this week's game, Kyle Pitts is forecasted by the projections to place in the 91st percentile among TEs with 6.1 targets.

When it comes to pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Atlanta Falcons ranks as the 6th-best in the NFL this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Falcons to pass on 54.6% of their opportunities: the 9th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.

Kyle Pitts's 44.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been notably lower this year than it was last year at 63.1.

This year, the imposing New Orleans Saints defense has yielded a meager 67.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the smallest rate in the league.

The New Orleans Saints linebackers rank as the 5th-best LB corps in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

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