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Kyle Pitts

Kyle Pitts Receptions
Player Prop Week 17

Chicago Bears vs Atlanta Falcons

Kyle Pitts Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-180/+150).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Falcons offense to be the 6th-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 26.58 seconds per snap.

Opposing teams have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.

The projections expect Kyle Pitts to accumulate 5.4 targets in this game, on balance, placing him in the 84th percentile when it comes to tight ends.

In regards to protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all air attack statistics), the O-line of the Falcons profiles as the 7th-best in the league this year.

Kyle Pitts's 61.8% Adjusted Catch Rate this season illustrates a substantial gain in his pass-catching skills over last season's 49.3% mark.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Falcons as the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 49.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

Kyle Pitts's 45.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been notably lower this year than it was last year at 63.1.

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