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Kyle Pitts

Kyle Pitts Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Atlanta Falcons vs Indianapolis Colts

Kyle Pitts Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+115/-145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +130 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the most plays run on the slate this week at 138.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.

The model projects Kyle Pitts to garner 6.4 targets in this week's contest, on balance, putting him in the 92nd percentile among TEs.

The Atlanta offensive line grades out as the 7th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all air attack statistics across the board.

Kyle Pitts comes in as one of the top TE receiving threats this year, averaging an impressive 3.3 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 76th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Falcons to pass on 51.5% of their chances: the 4th-lowest clip on the slate this week.

Opposing QBs have averaged 32.7 pass attempts per game versus the Colts defense this year: 6th-fewest in football.

Kyle Pitts's 46.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 63.1.

The Colts safeties rank as the 7th-best collection of safeties in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

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