Kyle Pitts Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Kyle Pitts

NFL · Player Props

Kyle Pitts

TE · Atlanta Falcons

Receptions

New York Jets vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 4, 2023 3:56 AM EST

Analysis

Kyle Pitts Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-158/+124).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -158.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Falcons are anticipated by our trusted projection set to run 66.6 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-most among all teams this week.
The Falcons have called the 6th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 61.5 plays per game.
The predictive model expects Kyle Pitts to accrue 5.3 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 91st percentile among TEs.
The Falcons offensive line grades out as the 9th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive influence on all passing attack stats across the board.
Kyle Pitts's 62.3% Adjusted Completion% this year represents a significant progression in his receiving skills over last year's 49.3% rate.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Falcons to be the least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 49.8% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 33.0 pass attempts per game against the New York Jets defense this year: 5th-fewest in football.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point drop-off in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive volume) from last season to this one, Kyle Pitts has been incorporated much less in his offense's passing offense.
This year, the formidable Jets defense has given up a meager 65.6% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 3rd-lowest rate in the league.
As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, New York's LB corps has been great this year, ranking as the best in the league.

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